Macro

The Hormuz Chokepoint: Why the Oil Shock Is Not Further Out

On 16 July, only 3 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz versus a pre-war average of 125 — a 97.6% collapse. Brent is at $86 and diesel margins hit record highs. The June contango was a head-fake. The near-term physical-risk window is now weeks to months, not years — even as the medium-term crude balance still looks conditionally bearish.